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Brent crude oil fell over 4% toward $89 per barrel on Thursday, the lowest since March, after President Trump suspended planned attacks against Iran scheduled for this evening, while also suggesting that Washington and Tehran were close to reaching an agreement to end the war. He later told reporters that a deal, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, could be signed as early as this weekend, likely in Europe. Meanwhile, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported that Tehran was likely to approve the agreement, though it has yet to give a formal response. So far, oil facilities have largely been spared, which has helped prevent the kind of supply shock many traders had feared and kept prices well below earlier conflict peaks. On the demand side, Chinese imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to fall in July, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased.

Brent oil prices moved between gains and losses below $93 per barrel on Thursday as traders balanced geopolitical risks with still-functioning global supply flows. President Donald Trump warned of possible further US attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, including the Kharg Island export terminal, while also signaling reduced appetite for a major escalation. At the same time, the UAE and Iran held rare direct talks, raising hopes for diplomatic de-escalation in the region. So far, oil facilities have largely been spared, which has helped prevent the kind of supply shock many traders had feared and kept prices well below earlier conflict peaks. On the demand side, Chinese imports from Saudi Arabia are expected to fall in July, while tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has increased. However, inventories are tightening in key regions, with US crude stocks including strategic reserves down sharply over recent weeks and Singapore fuel inventories at their lowest since 2013.

Brent oil climbed to $93.5 per barrel on Thursday after declining earlier in the session, following comments from US President Donald Trump that the US would strike Iran hard tonight. Trump also said that the US would soon take control of Iran’s “oil infrastructure points,” with a broader operation to assume control of the country’s oil and gas markets and infrastructure, including Kharg Island, expected “in the not too distant future.” Meanwhile, new data indicated that global oil inventories are showing signs of tightening. In the US, crude stockpiles, including strategic reserves, fell by 15 million barrels last week and have declined by more than 70 million barrels over the past five weeks, marking the largest drawdown since the 1980s. Fuel inventories in Singapore have also fallen to their lowest level since 2013. However, Chinese buyers are expected to purchase significantly less Saudi crude in July, as imports have already dropped to their lowest level in eight years.